Uttar Pradesh- The Political Battlefield

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Over the last few weeks we have seen India's Largest state being converted into a Political Battlefield. Literal slugfests, Political rallies, Leaders trading punches and receiving counter punches and finally it all boils down to the Janta-Janardhan which side they cast their valuable vote. Which button gets pressed the maximum number of times will decide who gets to rule UP for the next five years. I don't claim to be a political analyst but would like to see the entire scenario from the ring side view, as a rank outsider and see if it makes sense.

UP being the largest state, this elections could throw up a few interesting data points:

  • Demonetization and its bearing on the UP electorate. This could come as a huge boost for the Narendra Modi government at the centre, that what was perceived as a dampener and show stopper by the opposition has had no bearing in the minds of the common man. 
  • Critical also being the largest state, a party coming into power with absolute majority gets a say in National Politics not only at the state level.
  • It remains to be seen how people view the alliance between the Congress and the SP and what effect it has on the voting class.
  • The Internal squabbles within the SP will also have a bearing on the minds of the voter.
The results will be out out in the next couple of days however its a result that is not going to be very easy to predict. UP is a state that is dominated by caste politics and then the Hindutva as against the Muslim vote. Lets quickly analyse the fortunes of the Political Parties in the fray:

BJP: As I said earlier also they will want to see this as a step to test the waters as far as demonetization is concerned. Once the votes are in their favour they will definitely want to step up the pitch on other monetary/finacial measures that might be currently on hold. On the flip side they have not announced a Chief Ministerial candidate so there is not face to who is front-ending the campaign from their end, but for all practical purposes it has been their go to man, Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Samajwadi Party: Wrangled in family feuds, the internal warring between Father Mulayam Singh Yadav and his son Akhilesh Yadav. What should have been an internal family dispute is all out in the open, essentially washing dirty linen in public. Damage has been done and there has been practically no governance in the state over the last few months. Could have been avoided. How the public views this ugly spat remains to be seen. One more thing that could go against the SP will be the anti incumbency factor. However it has become very clear that Akhilesh has emerged from the shadows of his father, and father MSY could move into oblivion once the election results are announced. There could be public resentment as regards the alignment with the Congress party.

Bahujan Samaj Party: Led by Mayawati, last time around she had built quite a few elephants and idols all across the state, splurged money big time on her lavish birthday parties. It remains to be seen if she has learnt her lesson and would the electorate be willing to give her one more chance. Looks difficult since she is up against the SP and an agressive Narendra Modi. She has played the caste card very well in the past and has continued to do so. I guess that she will gain from the Muslim votes, having played the anti RSS and anti Hindutva card. Will it all translate into her becoming the Chief Minister of UP remains to be seen.

Congress: As per me non existent. Lesser said the better. They had no choice but to go along with the SP and Akhilesh was only too happy to oblige. Rahul was seen in a lot of campaigns with Akhilesh but will it attract votes is the question. On their own they would have drawn a blank in the state and so this alliance of convenience. Whether this alliance will continue if they are defeated is anyones bet. Sonia Gandhi chose to stay away from the campaign and their best bet Priyanka perhaps did not fancy their chances, except for a few token appearances in their home turf Amethi.

According to me its a clear three way contest between the SP, BJP and BSP. Too tough to call at this point of time, I would place my money on BJP. What about your views?

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